{"id":62,"date":"2004-05-17T22:28:06","date_gmt":"2004-05-18T03:28:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fiveforks.com\/ted\/2004\/05\/market_timing_p_1\/"},"modified":"2012-10-14T14:48:23","modified_gmt":"2012-10-14T19:48:23","slug":"market_timing_p_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fiveforks.com\/ted\/2004\/05\/market_timing_p_1\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Timing Part 3"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>After writing my <A HREF=\"\/ted\/2004\/03\/market_timing_p\/\">last<\/A> entry about market timing I decided to abandon it on 3 of my 4 mutual funds and just apply it to Fidelity Over the Counter (FOCPX). That was my intention originally but then I started doing it on the others. Naturally as soon as I gave up it started working.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><br \/>\nWhen I wrote last I had gotten out of FOCPX even though the price had gone back above the 50-day average.  But it dipped below again and I bought it on its way back above the line on April 2, having missed out on a 9% gain in the meantime. Soon after (April 16) the price dipped below the 50-day average again and I sold it for less, thus incurring yet another loss. It crossed the line again but then went back down and now is about 10% below what I sold it at.<\/p>\n<p><IMG SRC=\"http:\/\/igirder.com\/focpx040518.gif\"><\/p>\n<p>If it started climbing back up tomorrow I wouldn&#8217;t buy it back until it the price reached back up to the 50-day average which is only a few percent below my selling price right now, so really I won&#8217;t be able to save the 10%. But the advantage is that because I haven&#8217;t gotten the buy signal yet, if the market continues to decline I will still be on the sidelines. The timing thing means you always cut the peaks and valleys off of the big swings so on smaller swings it isn&#8217;t as useful.<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, I&#8217;ll continue trying this out a while long and we&#8217;ll see what happens but I&#8217;m about ready to give up on it. If the market has a big correction I could change my mind. Really this only works for big long corrections.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"\/ted\/2004\/05\/another_timing\/\">Another approach<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After writing my last entry about market timing I decided to abandon it on 3 of my 4 mutual funds and just apply it to Fidelity Over the Counter (FOCPX). That was my intention originally but then I started doing it on the others. Naturally as soon as I gave up it started working.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-finance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fiveforks.com\/ted\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fiveforks.com\/ted\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fiveforks.com\/ted\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fiveforks.com\/ted\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fiveforks.com\/ted\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.fiveforks.com\/ted\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1892,"href":"https:\/\/www.fiveforks.com\/ted\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62\/revisions\/1892"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fiveforks.com\/ted\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fiveforks.com\/ted\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fiveforks.com\/ted\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}